For an event famous for rosé, sunshine and dealmaking on the Croisette, MIPIM has an uncanny habit of colliding with the news.

Since 2020, when the conference was cancelled because of Covid, delegates have arrived in Cannes against the backdrop of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, fears over the stability of Credit Suisse and Donald Trump’s return to tariff wars. Go back further and the fair has coincided with everything from the Fukushima disaster to the Serious Fraud Office arrest of property tycoons Vincent and Robert Tchenguiz. This year the backdrop is once again geopolitical: the escalating confrontation between the US, Israel and Iran.

Yet for all that, the property industry is famously upbeat in adversity and there will, as ever, be hordes of dark-blue suited men – and a scattering of women – drinking and laughing at Caffè Roma opposite the conference centre.

To a large degree this optimism is a necessity. Delegates have to justify their time in Cannes and generate a return on the very significant investment that MIPIM extracts. In days gone by they could get away with the line that a deal six months later would never have happened if they hadn’t bumped into Johnny at MIPIM. Nowadays ROI is measured more scientifically, so returning home and saying no one is doing anything because of the war simply isn’t an option.

So what real estate issues will delegates be discussing this year?

1. The market may finally be turning

The biggest question hanging over MIPIM is whether the long-awaited recovery in real estate investment activity is finally beginning.

After two bruising years of higher interest rates, falling valuations and stalled transaction markets, pricing across much of Europe appears to have stabilised. Financing markets are functioning again, public credit spreads have tightened and liquidity in both debt and equity is gradually returning.

That does not mean the market is suddenly roaring back to life. Interest rates are unlikely to return to the ultra-cheap levels of the last cycle and geopolitical risk remains ever-present. But the mood among investors has shifted. Last year the conversation was about spotting green shoots and discovering where pricing might land. This year it is increasingly about where capital can be deployed with conviction.

As ever in real estate cycles, the question is not whether the market will turn, but how quickly it will move once it does.

2. Capital is coming back – but selectively

Even if investment volumes recover, the new cycle is unlikely to resemble the last. Many investors arriving in Cannes will be asking a simple question: who is actually buying?

There is particular interest in whether North American capital – especially opportunistic and value-add money – will return to Europe in scale. The region now looks relatively attractive on a pricing basis, but intention and allocation are not always the same thing.

More broadly, investors increasingly accept that this cycle will not be driven by easy yield compression. Instead, returns will come from income growth, asset management and operational performance. In other words, the old strategy of buying something and waiting for cap rates to fall may not work this time.

3. The “three Ls”: logistics, living and leisure

Sector selection will remain a central topic in Cannes.

The structural themes that have dominated the past decade are still very much in place. Logistics continues to benefit from supply-chain reconfiguration and e-commerce demand. Living in all its forms – from build-to-rent to student housing and senior living – remains supported by chronic undersupply in many European cities.

Large investors increasingly frame the opportunity through what Blackstone calls the “three Ls”: logistics, living and leisure. Hospitality has moved firmly back onto investors’ radar as travel demand surges across Europe.

At the same time, the gap between prime and secondary assets is becoming more pronounced. Capital is returning, but it is concentrating on the very best buildings in the strongest locations.

4. AI, data and the technology reshaping real estate

Perhaps the most interesting conversations this year will revolve around technology.

Artificial intelligence is already reshaping the way companies operate and consume space. That has direct implications for real estate, from the explosive demand for data centres to changes in logistics networks and occupier behaviour.

For investors, the question is no longer whether technology matters – it clearly does – but where real estate sits in the digital value chain.

The industry is only beginning to grapple with this shift. But as AI adoption accelerates, the impact on demand for logistics, power-intensive infrastructure and digital real estate could be profound.

5. Germany: the market everyone is watching

Hovering over many conversations in Cannes will be a familiar question: what is really happening in Germany?

Europe’s largest real estate market has been at the centre of the downturn, with falling values, distressed developers and a sharp slowdown in transaction activity. As a result, many investors view Germany as the bellwether for the wider European recovery. If pricing and liquidity are stabilising there, confidence elsewhere will follow.

Signs of life are emerging. But for many delegates the question remains whether the German market has truly bottomed, or whether the recovery still has some way to run.

By tomorrow the terraces along the Croisette will be full, the meeting rooms will be overbooked and the familiar migration between the Palais and Caffè Roma will be underway. Whatever the geopolitical backdrop, the property industry has a remarkable ability to carry on discussing rents, yields and development pipelines. In that sense, MIPIM is both a barometer of the moment and a reminder that property remains, above all, a long-term game.

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