So, how was Expo Real? More importantly, what was sentiment like in Germany and at Europe’s largest property gathering? While attendee numbers were down, most people were feeling more optimistic, with many talking about us having reached the bottom of the cycle.

It certainly feels as though the cogs are starting to move. Since September, there has been a marked uptick in activity reflected in the sector’s various news feeds. Ares’ acquisition of GLP was the big news at this conference, the latest of a long string of real estate M&A deals. There has also been a raft of new businesses launching as experienced hands spy a refreshing opportunity to start up, unencumbered by legacy issues, at the beginning of the new cycle. This must be a real pull for some. After all, why sit on your hands waiting for events outside of your control to dictate how you spend the next few years of your career.

Beyond the hubris, in the quieter corners of Munich, people were more guarded. It’s no understatement to say that fundraising has been difficult over the past couple of years and the jury is still out on where investors stand. As interest rates come down, will the large core investors come back to the same extent as during the ultra-low interest rate years? What are private equity investors thinking? Is family office capital going to lead the charge? Will the lights all suddenly come back on?

One industry veteran who’s been through a few cycles reflected that when we reach the bottom, there’s normally another six to 12 months until things start to really move. Before we get there, we’ve got to get through all the backward-looking negativity about transaction levels in the next reporting season. There’s the outcome of the US election to navigate, the UK budget and how the Fed handles the next few interest rate calls. “What happens in the US really matters over here,” he said.

In summary, sentiment was better than last year, although last year was particularly gloomy. Fingers crossed someone remembers to flick the light switch. It’s all to play for from here!

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